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Lancium Clean Campus

Roof lifecycle — General Roof 6 · CENTRAL_CORE

434 calibrated Sentinel-2 acquisitions over 2.3 years and 185 Landsat overpasses, shown as observed. The engine's change-point detector dates the apparent intervention; phase bands on the chart use its dates.

Building
General Roof 6 · CENTRAL_CORE
Roof footprint
6,245 m² · 67,218 sf
Surface (visual read)
TPO · homogeneous Observed
recently installed
Latest calibrated albedo

Optical and thermal history

ObservedAvailable
Before membrane completionTransitionMembrane regime0.000.200.400.600.80calibrated albedo · Sentinel-2 (observed)surface − ambient at overpass, °C · Landsat (observed, mixed pixel)-20020Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26
acquisition (qa pass) flagged quarterly median (descriptive) Landsat overpassClick an acquisition to place the compare marker.
Optical window Jun 2, 2024 → Sep 18, 2026 · sentinel-2a, sentinel-2b, sentinel-2c
Thermal window Jun 1, 2024 → Sep 11, 2026
Quarterly medians 2024-Q2 0.19 → 2026-Q3 0.55

Lifecycle phases

Modeled

The engine's change-point is this roof's membrane completion (construction). Before / transition / after boundaries use its dates; plateau values are descriptive medians of observed rows inside each phase. The FRESH → CURRENT (degradation) split needs the engine's post-completion degradation model and stays pending.

  1. 1Available
    Before membrane completion
    Jun 2, 2024 → Jan 23, 2025
  2. 2Available
    Transition
    Jan 23, 2025 → Jan 31, 2025
    albedo plateau pending
  3. 3Available
    Membrane regime
    Jan 31, 2025 → Sep 18, 2026
  4. 4Pending
    Current state
    dates from the change-point contract
    albedo plateau pending
Pending
Normalized trajectory. Sun-geometry / BRDF-normalized albedo trajectory is an engine output (spectral_normalize, lifecycle-aware peer group). Not yet persisted for this roof.
Available
Change-points. Engine change-point (blind PELT on the seasonal-controlled series): step up of 0.288 albedo, transition 2025-01-23 → 2025-01-31, 74 of 434 acquisitions confirming on sentinel-2a, sentinel-2b, sentinel-2c. The step coincides with the land-state classifier's membrane-completion date: construction, not an intervention.

Future modeled interventions

ModeledCampus-wide

The same list applies to every roof on this campus until roof-specific engine runs exist. Each becomes a scenario in the Simulator when its engine counterfactual exists; each is compared on capex, energy, peak kW, IT capacity, compute value, carbon, water and lifecycle.

InterventionStatusNeeds
Hose wash (clean roof)
Engine per-roof counterfactual: restore to peer median / historical best / manufacturer prior at age.
ModeledRun in Simulator
Pressure wash
Higher-cost cleaning tier; same physical chain as hose wash.
Pendingengine counterfactual
Reflective coating
Restore to a manufacturer-stated initial reflectance; embodied carbon pending environmental factors.
Pendingengine counterfactual
Targeted insulation replacement
Replace wet or degraded insulation where a moisture survey shows it; R-value recovery drives the thermal term.
Pendingmoisture survey; core cuts; roof assembly R-value (owner)
Recover with added insulation
New membrane over the existing assembly with added polyiso; compares capex, operational and embodied impact over service life.
Pendingroof assembly (owner); engine lifecycle counterfactual; embodied-carbon factors
Full reroof
Tear-off and replacement; the highest capex and embodied-carbon option, longest service-life reset.
Pendingroof assembly (owner); warranty/submittals; engine lifecycle counterfactual; embodied-carbon factors

What would resolve the roof hypothesis

Campus-wide
  • Owner data neededRoof assembly and install date. Replaces the manufacturer-prior age curve with the actual product and age.
  • Owner data neededWash / coating records. Dates any past cleaning so the persistence statistics can exclude it.
  • Owner data neededBAS trends. Converts the modeled cooling response to roof reflectance into an observed one.
Owner data roadmap

Reading this page

  • Calibrated broadband albedo (Sentinel-2 L2A, Bonafoni & Sekertekin 2020, calibration v2). Not a CRRC solar reflectance; compare the roof with its own history, not with product data sheets.
  • A sun-geometry seasonal cycle is present and not removed — the engine's normalized trajectory is pending. Compare like seasons, or the quarterly medians across years.
  • Landsat surface temperature: every roof here is smaller than one native 100 m thermal pixel; use same-acquisition differences, not absolute values.
  • Quarterly medians and before/after comparisons are descriptive summaries of observed rows, not a change-point model.